This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated:
Europe Direct contact centre
17.5.2022
Why diplomacy should still be used in the Ukraine war, if the West had overestimated Russia’s military capacity, how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term, how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals, the production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia, the winners and losers of the sanctions war, smart sanctioning Russian oil and gas, the impact of the war in Ukraine on the transatlantic relationship are some of the topics discussed in this edition.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine : more Western aid and fear of escalation
The article comments on the US and NATO policy regarding the war and the prevention of a Russian victory, including the possible pressure on Israel to join the international measures.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Las otras guerras del conflicto en Ucrania: las luchas internas en Kiev y Moscú
In this document the author describes the internal wars that are happening in the power centres of Moscow and Kiev as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Is diplomacy between Russia and the West still possible? The war is likely to stretch on for some time. The article analyses why diplomacy should still be used.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
NATO’s resilience: the first and last line of defence
This Strategic Update makes proposals towards ensuring that attempts to strengthen resilience within NATO deliver practical results. The recommendations are reached by answering the question of what resilience is, analysing NATO’s evolving role in issues of national resilience among its members, and outlining the political challenge of setting and meeting resilience objectives.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
European strategic responsibility must focus on Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a new political reality in which the European countries should focus on “strategic responsibility” rather than “strategic autonomy” to defend their continent. This policy brief argues that the Europeans should conceive their efforts in three steps: (1) military mobility, (2) resilience, and (3) enhanced deterrence against Russia.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Is Volodymyr Zelensky the necessary hero or not?
The author of this article claims that the war in Ukraine has given Zelensky a kind of hero aura. However, wanting to maintain the uniqueness of this constitutive moment unceasingly and at great cost to Ukraine without allowing the stability of a possible peace to be achieved could undermine his heroic status.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Lecciones aprendidas sobre la (in)capacidad de las fuerzas armadas rusas en Ucrania
This article claims that, in spite of the apparently high quality military equipment that Russia seemed to possess at the beginning of the war, it has been unable to defeat Ukraine. It might be that the West had overestimated Russia’s military capacity, its weaknesses seem to exceed its virtues and only nuclear arms seem to support its capacity of dissuasion.
CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS INSTITUTE
Former Soviet states are distancing themselves from their old imperial master
This article exposes that for many of Russia’s neighbours, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of breaking out of Moscow’s orbit and abandoning loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. While governments from Moldova and Georgia to Kazakhstan are distancing themselves from Putin’s offensive in Ukraine, the war is also prompting a deeper reexamination of the meaning of the past in former Soviet territories.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Propaganda masowego rażenia. Rosyjska telewizja w obliczu wojny
The article examines Russia’s propaganda machine, its tools and channels, arguing that in the light of Russia’s underwhelming military performance in Ukraine and the negative impact of sanctions on the country’s economy, Russian state media face a key challenge: to maintain citizens’ support for Kremlin and the invasion.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Wounded but not broken: Russia’s civil society in times of war
The article informs that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to increased oppression against opposition activists, NGOs, and journalists within the country. Civil society organizations are trying to survive under the new political and economic conditions, with many activists and experts fleeing Russia.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
Interim security insights and implications from the first two months of the Russia-Ukraine war
While Russia’s significant losses in this war will degrade its ability to conduct large scale offensive operations against NATO in the short term, the authors consider that it is too soon to write off the medium to long-term threat posed by Russia. The article calls on NATO leadership to use the knowledge about Russia’s degraded military readiness as well as the poor command and control to enhance the alliance’s conventional deterrence posture.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Putin’s imperial war: Russia unveils plans to annex southern Ukraine
Kremlin-appointed officials in Russian-occupied Kherson have confirmed plans to annex the region and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. The announcement underlines the expansionist imperial agenda that is driving Putin’s war while highlighting his intention to extinguish Ukrainian independence and redraw the map of Europe by force. However, many voices in the international arena seem to believe some kind of negotiated settlement remains possible. For the author, this is dangerous wishful thinking.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
The war in Ukraine, the strategic compass, and the debate over EU strategic autonomy
The author notes that the war in Ukraine has concentrated the European publics’ attention on the necessity for defence capabilities of high-intensity conventional warfare, and not just peacekeeping or maritime patrol missions. This kind of “geopolitical awakening” should help EU leaders deflect what had been a building crisis for European defence firms. The Strategic Compass presents a variety of terms to describe where it wants the EU to go next.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Using information to influence the Russian war in Ukraine
On the basis of future scenarios for the war in Ukraine, this brief explores how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term. The four possible variations of Russian/Western cohesion – high/high, low/high, high/low, low/low – indicate how each side would define the outcome of the conflict. These possible outcomes, in turn, generate lessons about how a liberal West might use information to tip the scales on an autocratic Russia.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia’s war on Ukraine: the situation of LGBTI people
The paper deals with the situation of LGBT people as a result of the war in Ukraine. According to the authors, with each passing day, the chaos engendered by the war increases the risk of violence and exploitation exponentially, in particular for the most vulnerable, including women, children, Roma people, and members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersexual (LGBTI) community.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
Builders of progress: the war in Ukraine through the eyes of youth
The policy brief analyses the results of a survey of 18-38 year-olds in France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, Poland and Romania on their views on the invasion of Ukraine. Among the findings are : a fear by a majority that the conflict will spread within the EU; belief that EU countries should spend more on their military and should speed up the transition to renewable energy; and support by almost half for the creation of an EU army.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Les églises orthodoxes dans la guerre en Ukraine : les conséquences multi-dimensionnelles d’un conflit
The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine is expected to have lasting political and strategic repercussions. It is also fraught with consequences for religious actors, due to the weight of Slavic orthodoxy in the ideological apparatus built by Putin, and the long-standing support, and strengthened in recent weeks, by the Moscow Patriarchate for the Russian government.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Les apories de la politique du Saint-Siège en Ukraine
It was on 3 May 2022 that the Pope took the decision to criticize Patriarch Kirill of Moscow for his attitude to the conflict and publicly denounced Putin’s refusal to accept his proposal for mediation. This brief aims to qualify the place and scope of the Pope’s action in the war in Ukraine.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia’s war on Ukraine: the risk of trafficking of human beings
The article analyses the increased risks of human trafficking due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has forced millions of people, mostly women and children, to flee the country or they have become displaced within Ukraine’s borders. The chaos generated by the conflict has exponentially increased the risk of human trafficking and exploitation, especially of the most vulnerable persons.
РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL)
Restoration, reformation, revolution? Blueprints for the world order after the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be seen as a primarily European crisis of regional dimensions, it will have—indeed does—many global repercussions. Naturally, Ukraine and Russia will bear the most massive costs of the conflict: the World Bank’s latest estimates suggest that Ukraine’s GDP will shrink by 45.1% in 2022, while Russia’s GDP will shrink by 11.2%. This paper elaborates the impact of the war on the world order.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Stop feeding the bear : the case for a smart embargo on Putin’s oil and gas
This brief aims to shed light on the geopolitical context that Europe faces with Putin’s second invasion of Ukraine, and how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals. After briefly summarising the last 30 years of Ukrainian history, the current state of the war is outlined. Thereafter, the vital role of fossil fuel money for the Russian war effort is underlined, before suggesting that an embargo on Russian oil and gas exports is probably an inevitable outcome.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The European tank storage sector 2050 and beyond
As the world is aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and beyond, policy support, international relations and the development of new technologies are key determinants of what the next decades will look like. This paper seeks to distinguish long-term trends for energy infrastructures by analysing technological developments against the background of global climate ambitions.
THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES
Tracking the costs and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This article comments on the latest figures regarding the costs of the war and provides a brief analysis of the medium and long-term outlook for Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia
Despite the war, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although the areas cultivated will be up to 30% smaller than in 2021. The article identifies some related problems: the risk of confiscating grains by Russian occupiers, a fuel shortage and the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov through which the vast majority of food has been exported.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Impact of the war in Ukraine on the debate on the future of agriculture in the EU
The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. The revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition is advocated by big producers while environmentalists urge its speed up. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Winners and losers of the sanctions war
The authors analyse the possible consequences the sanctions on Russia will have on other countries worldwide. Their conclusion is that the “economic war” between the West and Russia will lead to changes in the geography of global supply chains and cross-border payments: as new actors are bound to emerge, Beijing is likely to benefit the most from this new economic order.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Monetary policy issues in the context of the war in Ukraine
This paper focuses on problems related to monetary policy issues in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are expected to have a significant impact on price stability, and possibly financial stability, in the euro area. In addition, the effective implementation of EU sanctions, targeting the Russian financial and capital markets, are in the hands of the European financial sector. All this has had and will have an impact on the operational implementation of the monetary policy and payments systems bringing new challenges.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Conflict, sanctions and the future of world trade
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been met with unprecedented trade and other economic sanctions. This white paper describes five scenarios in this context of geopolitical tensions.
BRUEGEL
Cutting Putin’s energy rent: ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas
The most efficient way for Europe to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo. This paper argues that infrastructure bottlenecks prevent Russia from selling all the oil it wants to bring to market, even at lower prices. Europe can exploit this dependency by offering to buy Russian oil and gas only at a substantial discount. One way to do this is through an import tariff.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
The effects of sanctions
The debate about economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy is often restricted to a binary question of whether they work or not. According to the brief, there is ample support in the literature studying sanctions to say that this question is too simplistic. Even if they do not produce immediate success in reaching the main aim of the sanction policy, they do cause damage, in many dimensions, and such damage is non-negligible.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Efectos económicos y geopolíticos de la invasión de Ucrania
This analysis revises the economic and geopolitical effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with special emphasis on the energy markets, inflation and the realignment that is happening in the international system and in the economic international organisations.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Energie- und Klimapolitik im Kontext von Russlands Krieg: nachhaltige Ansätze zur Lösung globaler Krisen
This brief suggests that Germany and Europe must strive for rapid independence from fossil fuels from Russia. Missing the national climate targets due to a delayed phase-out of coal threatens to have devastating effects worldwide and, through associated climate changes, could trigger new conflicts.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
Impact of lacking gas supplies from Russia on security of supply
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, a possible complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia, either triggered by the EU or by the Russian side, has become the focus of public and political interest. The objective of this brief analysis is to quantify the potential supply gap over the course of the year in a general manner, without explicitly modeling gas flows.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The Ukraine war is deepening global food insecurity — What can be done?
The author analyses our interconnected world and its consequences: the food insecurity and conflict challenges.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
Overview of events and processes in EU countries and UK in Q1 2022
In April 2022, it was announced that part of the US funding for military infrastructure development would be allocated to the UK. Britain has also announced that it will freeze the assets of Russia’s largest bankn stop all planned investments in Russia and will reinforce its defence assistance to Ukraine with a new support package worth £100 million. The brief analyses also measures taken by other EU member states in the context of the war in Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Could disruptions to Eastern European wheat spur displacement in Africa?
The author analyses the dependence on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The majority of African countries are highly dependent on imports of basic food items for their survival.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly
Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., this strategic update confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
How the Western-Russian confrontation will shake the Middle East
This article considers that regardless of how things play out in Ukraine over the near-term, it appears all but certain that Russia and the West will find themselves locked in a protracted confrontation for years to come. Syria and Iran offer useful test cases for assessing what to expect.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the Transatlantic Relationship
The article explores the implications of the invasion of Ukraine for the Transatlantic Relationship, including aspects such as the economic impact and the role of China. It highlights the possibility that a severe economic recession in the USA due to the effects of the war will favour the election of a president with nationalist, unilateralist, and EU- and NATO-critical views
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Russia’s Ukraine war could offer chance to resolve South Caucasus conflicts
The author analyses the limits of Russian hard power. It focuses on the frozen conflicts” states in the South Caucasus: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
4.5.2022
Now in the third month of the war in Ukraine, think tank assessments include the failure to deter Russian aggression and the ideology behind it, lessons from previous wars, the sea change in Europe’s security order, Putin’s repressive media policy, the framework for prosecuting war crimes, economic implications for the EU, the prospects for reducing energy dependence on Russia and the impact on the transition to clean energy, tracking current support for Ukraine, its reconstruction needs, and the implications of the war for the Southern Mediterranean countries, the Eastern Partnership, India, Syria, Moldova, Turkey and Taiwan.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Failing to deter Russia’s war against Ukraine: the role of misperceptions
This analysis argues that clarifying why the deterrence efforts of the West – the US and the EU – did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strategies to stop Russia’s aggression.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
War has returned to Europe: three reasons why the EU did not see it coming
Before 24 February Europe decidedly defined itself as ‘post-war’. The article suggests that in order to create a future that stops perpetuating the past, the EU and its member states must start to critically contemplate how they got into the current predicament and change course. The author outlines three lessons that could be learnt from the past.
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
Ukraine: Putin’s war to change the world
The article analyses the recent actions and approach taken by Putin as well as paradigm shifts in Russian politics which have led to the current situation in Russia and Ukraine. The author also speculates on Putin’s personality change and attempts to find an answer to the question: Which Vladimir Putin are we dealing with now?
РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL)
No time for fatalism
The author outlines difficulties Russia is facing which will test the strength of its statehood following the military conflict in Ukraine.
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
From Sarajevo to Mariupol: what the Yugoslav wars can teach us about Ukraine’s fate
The article presents a comparison between the former Yugoslavia and the war in Ukraine – the siege of Ukrainian cities is reminiscent of Vukovar and Sarajevo, while Butcha has been described as « the new Srebrenica ». While such comparisons can help guide our thinking, the author warns that they come with the risk of seeing parallels where there are none, creating an excessively skewed representation of the Ukrainian war.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine as Putin’s ideological project
The author analyses Putin’s authoritarian political rule.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
How wars end – war terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine war
The authors consider what we can learn from war terminations in the past: how long they last, how they end, whether they relapse, what factors contribute to their end, and what this implies for the Russia-Ukraine war.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters
While Russian equipment losses are greater, Ukrainian losses could be critical. The author looks into the impact of the losses in equipment and the immediate needs.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Niemieckie dostawy broni dla Kijowa – kontrowersyjny kurs SPD
The article analyses the evolution of the German government’s stance on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and examines the strong political and public pressure the SPD and its allies are facing in this regard.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DGAP)
Sea change for Europe’s security order
The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine has destroyed the European security order. Germany’s government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. This policy brief outlines three different scenarios depicting different options for the future.
TIMBRO
Putins digitala järnridå krackelerar
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has stepped up the country’s repressive media policy in an attempt to build a digital iron curtain around his own country. The author considers how alternative channels and criticism from cultural and sporting figures are affecting the information war.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Völkerrechtliche Verbrechen im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
This study outlines the institutional and legal framework for prosecution of crimes under international law committed by Russia against Ukraine. It does not however analyse to what extent these crimes have already been committed.
RAND EUROPE
Geostrategic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine
After two months of fighting in Ukraine, some longer-term geostrategic consequences are coming into focus. The author considers that Russia may emerge as a massive loser, with Ukraine and its Western partners showing that aggression in Europe may not pay.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
NATO and Russia after the invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief considers Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the culmination of its increasingly militarized foreign policy centered around a small cast of decision-makers primarily in the military and security services close to the president. NATO is now forced to return to its original mission—to defend Europe against an aggressive and highly militarized Russian foreign policy.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Covering the period January 24 until April 23, it measures support from Western governments.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
Helping in times of war: how Ukrainian NGOs built a support network
The war in Ukraine has caused the biggest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Second World War. This article put a focus on the broad network of NGOs in Ukraine, which despite the worsening situation and grave risks, continues to help those affected by the war.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The dangers of Western complacency
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived the Western alliance. The author analyses the economic fields.
BRUEGEL
Fiscal support and monetary vigilance: economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union
For Europe, the war in Ukraine is a first-order economic shock. This paper raises three macroeconomic challenges for policymakers to consider: how best to use sanctions to deter Russia while limiting adverse effects on the EU; how to deal with cuts to real income because of the increase in the energy import bill; and how to deal with the increase in inflation as a result of higher energy and food prices.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Financial aid to Ukrainian reconstruction: loans versus grants
This policy brief provides an overview of the discussion on the relative merits of grants and loans in the literature on foreign aid, including a short section on debt relief initiatives.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Post-war global supply chains: Europe must defend economic cooperation
The war in Ukraine is dramatically reshaping international strategic relations and economic alliances. The paper presents some of the dynamics at play in relation to trade and emphasises the need for Europe to persuade major global players to recognise common goods in areas such as climate change and economic cooperation.
VOX UKRAINE
Housing in Ukraine after the war
This article urges early consideration to be given to reconstruction after the war, in particular with regard to housing which will be crucial both in the short and the long run. A number of recommendations are put forward, based on an assumed precondition: upgrading the rule of law in Ukraine to an acceptable level.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine – Weekly digest
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following Russia’s military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
Tracking the costs and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The site gives an analysis of the humanitarian needs in Ukraine, the economic fall-out in Russia and the spill-overs to Europe and global markets.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
Multiple battlefields in time and space
Tracking the status of this war is highly complex due to the multiple battlefields and time horizons through which it is being waged. Russia’s physical invasion is proceeding slower than expected. Although the financial bombs launched through kicking Russia out of the global payments system and decoupling it from broad swaths of international trade have already moved markets, the authors consider that these actions will take far more time than markets to impact Russia’s means of economic production and the economic experiences of ordinary Russians.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
The EU’s prospects for decoupling from Russian gas
The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments for reducing dependence on Russian gas. As the prospect of a total embargo is still distant, according to this article, it is crucial to continue efforts in order to increase the EU’s energy security.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Les dépendances stratégiques, une question de souveraineté
Europe is realising that it needs to reduce its dependencies to ensure its prosperity, secure its interests and retain control. This article looks at the EU’s priority to « progressively break away » from dependence on Russian hydrocarbon imports and argues that the war in Ukraine has brought an additional dimension, and the Union’s objective has evolved from resilience to sovereignty.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU gas storage and LNG capacity as responses to the war in Ukraine
The paper deals with the question of Europe’s supply of coal, oil and gas. The article discusses the current situation in the light of the problem of rising gas prices, the EU gas storage capacity, LNG as a possible substitute for Russian gas, EU action to reduce dependence on Russian gas as well as potential legislative steps and policy implications.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe’s clean energy transition
The author analyses the EU’s Russian gas dependence and the project of the European policymakers to build energy security.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
A turning point for sustainability
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought about a turning point in foreign and security policy. The authors consider that this also gives rise to revaluations in areas relating to sustainable development. It looks at issues, such as unilateral dependencies in the supply of raw materials and food, impact on the timeframes for EU Green Deal, and the role of countries of the Global South.
CHATHAM HOUSE
The Ukraine war and threats to food and energy security
Both Russia and Ukraine are important to global resource markets, particularly for energy, food and fertilizers. This article looks at the consequences of the rapid ‘spike’ in prices, which is exacerbated by disruption to supply chains and fears of potential supply shortfalls, and calls for measures to mitigate the ongoing impact and the longer-term risks of market disruption and geopolitical upheaval.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Tanks versus banks: Russian military versus EU geoeconomic power
The EU and its Member States (and NATO) are not directly involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but they have unleashed a major geo-economic offensive in response to Putin’s geopolitical gambit. This paper shows how they too, therefore, have to define precise objectives, and prepare for the new geo-economic and geopolitical world that will inevitably result from this war.
EURO-MEDITERRANEAN STUDY COMMISSION
Feeds filled with frustration: Southern Mediterranean reactions to EU responses towards Ukraine
Users on Twitter, particularly those from the Southern Mediterranean, have found the European Union’s political compassion to also carry a measure of inconsistency. This article points to the accusations of a double standard and hypocrisy and to the criticism about the lack of involvement in the conflicts of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Israel and Palestine.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
Post-2022 EU assistance to Eastern neighbours: old practices, new trends and the implications of Russian military aggression against Ukraine
In the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine, this policy paper focuses on how the EU reacted to support Ukraine through old and new European financial toolboxes. The author gives a closer look at the Eastern Partnership and gives recommendations for the EU institutions.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
From Ukraine to Taiwan: learning to live in a worse world
For the author of this article, the war in Ukraine can be understood as a first act of a war of greater proportions for global supremacy between the U.S. and China. Depending on how and when this war finishes, the starting conditions could be shaped for a historical period in which the «Thucydides Trap» would cast its inexorable shadow.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
The War in Ukraine and its impact on Syria
The text looks at the immediate effects the war in Ukraine will have on Syria as well as on external actors in Syria (Russia, USA, Turkey, Iran) and how the decisions of these external actors might impact the current geopolitical dynamics.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
La Moldavie face à la guerre : entre la prudence et l’abîme
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profound consequences for Europe and neighbouring countries. This article examines the case of Moldova, a state wedged between Romania and independent Ukraine since 1991. In solidarity with Ukraine and defending the principle of territorial integrity, Moldovan leaders are trying to be cautious in their relations with Russia, both for internal and external reasons.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Why the Ukraine crisis will not derail the Indian economy
Despite of the situation in Ukraine, this paper argues that the Indian economy is displaying and shall continue to display resilience. The arguments presented derive largely from the long-term structural robustness of the economy, which is expected to provide durability to the India story.
РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL)
Ukrainian crisis, Turkey and Eurasia: who wins?
The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an unprecedented shake-up of the world order that has prevailed over the last 30 years. The author assesses countries which will
be beneficiaries of the conflict.
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ASIAN RESEARCH
The United States, Japan, and Taiwan: what has Russia’s aggression changed?
This paper considers Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine and analyzes similarities, differences, and lessons from that conflict for a cross–Taiwan Strait scenario that involves the U.S. and Japan.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The Ukraine war escalates demands to reform the United Nations
The Russia-Ukraine war is forcing the world to acknowledge critical failings in international institutions. The article focuses on reform proposals of these institutions.
President Michel and President Zelenskyy
27.4.2022
Just over two months since the invasion of Ukraine, analysis by think tanks includes Russia’s actions and the foundations of the war, the heightened stakes with the new offensive in east and south-east Ukraine, how the West can manage escalation, the new European security architecture, Russia’s information warfare, violence against women as a weapon of war, accountability for the atrocities committed, the influx of refugees from Ukraine, possible socio-economic consequences for the EU, the impact of sharp increases in food and energy commodities, especially in Africa, and the positioning of China, ASEAN countries, Turkey, Iran and Venezuela.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Terror, pacification, occupation. Russia’s actions in the occupied territories of Ukraine
The article looks at the actions taken by Russia in order to maintain control over the invaded territories of Ukraine, arguing that the Kremlin did not have a plan for the rapid development of the occupied land or for dealing with the civilians in a manner that would have effectively ensured their support. It led to brutal pacification, inept occupation and terror in the seized territories.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Russia’s war in Ukraine: identity, history, and conflict
This paper explains the erroneous assumptions the Kremlin made about Ukrainian identity that informed its decision-making and laid the foundations for its war against Ukraine.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
Europe after Putin’s war: EU foreign and defence policy in the new European security architecture
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a game changer for Europe and the global system and a call for the EU to emerge as a coherent security actor, so the authors claim. Faced with a security challenge on a global scale, NATO remains the only game in town. The EU ambition of developing its strategic autonomy becomes practically meaningful only within the transatlantic alliance.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Climbing the ladder: how the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond
This study seeks to identify key rungs on the escalation ladder around the war in Ukraine; assess how the current crisis might escalate inside Ukraine and across NATO’s eastern flank; explore how the US and NATO posture can prevent or limit escalation; and offers recommendations for how the United States and NATO can adapt their strategy, posture, and activities to manage escalatory dynamics.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Russlands nukleare Drohgebärden im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Any conflict with a nuclear power like Russia carries the risk that nuclear weapons could be used. According to the authors, as long as NATO does not inter¬vene directly in Ukraine and the Russian regime does not feel existentially threatened, both intentional and unintentional nuclear use remain extremely unlikely, though Moscow’s nuclear threats still entail significant negative consequences.
English Link
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
Missiles hypersoniques : le cas du Kh-47M2 Kinjal
This article focuses on Kh-47М2 Kinjal, Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile, which was employed in March in Ukraine by the Russian military forces. The paper discusses the origin, characteristics as well as the technology used behind this specific type of weapon and provides a broader description of hypersonic missiles pointing out differences and similarities compared to Kinjal.
TERRA NOVA
Poutine, les poupées russes et la vérité
This article provides an analysis of three texts which present the Russian authorities’ point of view on the invasion of Ukraine : the essay by Vladimir Putin entitled « On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians » published in July 2021; the declaration of war speech on the night of February 24, 2022; and the homily of Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russias, delivered in March this year. The author concludes that these texts reflect a new Russian national narrative in the service of war propaganda.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Russland auf dem Weg in die Diktatur
The text examines how Russia has turned into a dictatorship and wonders if the immense pressure caused by the war and sanctions could lead to political change and the end of Putin’s regime in the medium term.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The Donbas and beyond
The “Battle of the Donbas” has begun. The author comments on two factors affecting the outcome of what is likely to devolve into a campaign of attrition : which army suffers the greatest losses and, once exhausted, can reconstitute itself for the next round, which might indeed be decisive.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine: the dangers in Russia’s new offensive
This article considers that Russia’s new offensive in eastern and southern-eastern Ukraine heightens the stakes both for aggressors and defenders and increases the imperative for democracies to sustain support for Ukraine, including with longer-range weapons for its defense.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia’s war on Ukraine in international law and human rights bodies: bringing institutions back in
The briefing discusses the war in Ukraine in the context of international law and human rights. It argues that while international law and human rights institutions can deliver little immediate relief for Ukraine citizens, the initiatives have important political functions. Most importantly, they prepare the ground to ensure accountability for crimes committed in the context of the war.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Investigation of Russia’s crimes in Ukraine: a turning point for the International Criminal Court ?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has begun advancing the investigation of Russian military operations in the context of two proceedings: Russia’s confrontation with Georgia (2008) and the confrontation with Ukraine (since 2014). The authors argue that the investigation of Russia could be a turning point in terms of world public opinion toward the Court and increase its legitimacy.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
How to achieve accountability for atrocities in Ukraine
Assessing the actions taken by the international community in supporting accountability processes for the atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians, this paper concludes that this united effort will require coordination, creativity and sustained political will to ensure that perpetrators are held accountable, and that justice is delivered to victims.
HERITAGE FOUNDATION
The U.S. should assist Ukraine in its efforts to prosecute Russian war crimes
According to this article, despite its established scepticism with respect to the International Criminal Court (ICC), the U.S. should assist Ukraine in view of the mounting evidence of shocking war crimes committed by Russia. By providing aid and intelligence directly to Ukraine, the Biden Administration would demonstrate its commitment to the rule of law and international security while also remaining consistent with the U.S. position on the ICC.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The Ukraine crisis: women are fighting a different kind of war
Increasing reports of sexual and physical violence against women are surfacing in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis.This paper outlines how violence against women is used as a war weapon.
ТЕКСТИ.ORG.UA (TEXTY.ORG.UA)
One in every three news items is about the war or its consequences for Russia
This article provides an analysis (4-10 April) of what Russian state media and other websites are telling the Russian people about the attack on Ukraine. It concludes that Russian disinformers continue to dedicate one in every three news items to the war and its consequences for Russia.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No. 282: Russian information warfare
This issue is about the tools that Russia has used against Ukraine, Poland, the United States, and the European Union, as well as the strategies that these countries have employed to combat Russian information warfare.
CEDOS – CENTRE FOR SOCIETY RESEARCH
Education and war in Ukraine
This paper contains an overview of the data on the damage to education institutions, as well as of the key changes that have taken place in the organization of the education process in preschool, secondary and higher education in Ukraine.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Which countries help Ukraine and how? Introducing the Ukraine support tracker
This paper introduces the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on February 24. It measures support from Western governments, namely by G7 and European Union member countries.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Welcoming Ukrainian refugees in the EU : preliminary insights on socio-economic consequences
As a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, around 10 million of Ukrainians have fled their homes to find safety in other regions of Ukraine but also in neighbouring countries. This paper provides some preliminary insights on the likely socio-economic consequences that the influx of millions of Ukrainians in such a short amount of time will have in the EU.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
La acogida a los refugiados ucranianos: algunos desafíos e incertidumbres
The arrival of several millions of Ukrainian refugees to the EU raises management, financial and integration challenges, but has unprecedented political support. This article looks at the current situation and the challenges in the longer term, given the uncertainty over the duration of the war and the volume of refugees it will produce.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Accueil des réfugiés ukrainiens : entre réponses d’urgence et solutions de long terme
It is difficult to estimate the impact that the arrival of almost five million Ukrainian refugees will have on Member States. The authors consider that, in the short term, it is important to ensure the protection and reception of people fleeing the war in good conditions, and acknowledge that, in the medium and long term, it is more difficult to estimate needs. The longer the war lasts, the more the needs of displaced persons will change in nature, both in terms of psychological and material support.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Human development in Putin’s Russia
The paper examines the influence of Putin’s regime and the possible consequence of the Ukraine conflict on Russia’s population and human development aspects such as, among other, gross national income per capita, life expectancy and education based on rich statistical data.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No 283: political and economic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine
The topics in this issue discuss Russia’s relations towards post-Soviet countries, Russian politics and prospects of the Russian economy, Russian propaganda techniques and the results of a Russian public opinion poll.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following the war in Ukraine, including recent information on the EU sanctions regime, policies supporting energy, and economic and financial resilience in the EU. It also highlights policy recommendations to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
What the EU budget can and cannot do in response to the war in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked a debate on whether the EU should issue new common debt to deal with the social and economic consequences of the war. Those in favour contend that the expected budgetary costs of the war for the EU will be too high to be covered by the existing EU instruments – the €800bn Covid recovery fund and the multi-annual EU budget.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Rising food prices: global risks and vulnerabilities
The author of this article states that the breakout of the conflict in Ukraine and the following imposition of heavy Western sanctions on Russia are causing sharp price increases in food and energy commodities – of which both Ukraine and Russia represent key exporters – as well as disruptions to global supply chains, impacting the post-pandemic economic recovery.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Sanctions in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This briefing provides summarised and simplified information regarding the sanctions the EU is imposing following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It covers the EU framework for adopting and imposing sanctions; the sanctions EU is imposing; how these are being implemented and enforced and how the EU sanctions can be rendered more effective.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations and the impact of Russia’s war
The article discusses the consequences of the war for EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations. The EU is Ukraine’s most important trading partner, accounting for more than 40 % of its total trade in goods in 2021. In turn, Ukraine is the EU’s 15th largest trading partner, representing around 1.2% of overall EU trade.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. This policy note analyses the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Opinion on Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union
This paper examines the request by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 February 2022 for his country to accede to membership of the EU and advocates several steps the EU could take in response, following the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request.
TERRA NOVA
La Pologne face à la guerre en Ukraine
This article seeks to throw light on the recent Franco-Polish tensions over Ukraine, pointing out that even if the two countries have adopted similar positions on this crisis, they do not have the same reading of the security issues on the continent. Recent tensions between the European Union and Poland are likely to drag on, despite an improvement in the relationship between Brussels and Warsaw.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Relations between Southern European MS have often been marked by a loose cooperation or, worse, by logics of competition. Recent events such as the post-pandemic recovery or the war in Ukraine show that, when cooperation occurs, positive results can be achieved. This joint publication identifies several policy areas for fruitful cooperation between Southern European member states.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Flexible neutrality: Austria on the Russian aggression against Ukraine
The article examines Austria’s neutral position towards Russia and its role during the war in Ukraine, only supporting Ukraine through humanitarian aid. It considers that the reason of such neutrality towards the Russian Federation could be related to close energy and economic ties.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
ASEAN wobec konfliktu na Ukrainie
The author examines the different reactions of ASEAN countries to the conflict, including votes within the UN over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Iran’s attitude to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
The article looks at Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine and considers whether Iran will actively support Russia against Ukraine and whether the war will have an impact on the full renewal of a nuclear deal with Iran.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
What Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means for African governments
In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed reactions from governments. This article considers how some see this as an opportunity to build economic capacity from within the continent, whilst others have opened the door for the Russian government to re-shape its approach toward Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
The War against Ukraine – 5 takeaways for China and their implications for the EU
The common western sanctions against Russia are undoubtedly unnerving from a Chinese perspective, and China’s possible takeaways from them will shape its future relations with the EU and other western nations. At least five take-aways are ready at hand : three of them are discussed in the first article and the other two in the second one.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
China’s Ukraine gambit: Beijing plays both sides
This article explores how and why Chinese leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine crisis prompts China to swing behind Myanmar’s junta
After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China has now dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. This article analyses China’s real intentions and the likely implications of this move, calling on Western states who are helping Ukraine meet an existential threat, not to ignore China’s moves in Southeast Asia.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
China: Towards a greener BRI, but with Russia’s gas
This article finds that the different consequences of the gas market disruption due to the Ukraine crisis in 2022 has even further reignited the Chinese leadership’s concern over energy security. The situation could delay global climate action to a point that would make climate disruption on business even more severe.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Walking a fine line: Turkey’s mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and relations with the West
Russia and Ukraine have clearly been willing to give Ankara a significant role to play in talks on how to end the war and to participate in Turkish mediation efforts. This article considers how the position of mediator has eased Turkey’s situation not only in relation to some of the dilemmas posed by the war, but also in providing an opening for improving its relations with NATO.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Turkey’s pivot to Eurasia: the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The author points out that Turkey’s position in a “post-Western world” is widely debated as Asia emerges as the world’s new demographic and economic focal point. The emergence of a revisionist Russia, threatening to destroy the global order in place since the end of the Cold War, sent out a powerful warning to its neighbours, including Turkey. Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian aggression refuted Turkish Eurasianist claims that Ukraine was “helpless” and that the West had entered a “serious and irreversible decline”.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Europe’s struggles for influence in Africa in light of the Kremlin’s invasion
Russia and Ukraine are important wheat suppliers for many African states, which are now threatened with high prices and shortages. The article gives an overview of what the additional political and financial costs mean for the start of the new EU-AU partnership.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s war with Ukraine will force the acceleration of food production reforms in Africa
The article discusses the impact of food shortages in Africa due to the war in Ukraine. According to the paper, the shortage of food already has socio-political consequences, as some African countries are very dependent on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine. As such, price fluctuations are already in place and exports of wheat, as well as other food products, are already banned within certain African countries.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Russie – Venezuela : un partenariat à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine on February 24, Venezuela has displayed seemingly unwavering support for Russia. This paper considers the possible implications of the recent resumption with Washington of a dialogue broken since 2019.
photo stand UP
13.4.2022
More than 6 weeks into Russia’s war against Ukraine, think tanks analyse the origins of the Russian invasion and the pre-existing global divisions, the threat and impact of escalation, use of Russian propaganda, the war crimes being committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and its wartime information strategy, as well as assess the impact of the war on the EU’s asylum policy, its security framework and its enlargement agenda, and review the positions of Turkey, Israel and Africa.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
One month on in the Ukraine war: what role for the kadyrovtsy?
This article discusses the role played by the “kadyrovtsy”, the personal army of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in supporting Russia’s military aggress in Ukraine. The “kadyrovtsy” group, and other loosely integrated Chechen units, have previously conducted special operations on behalf of the federal authorities in Moscow in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
War in Ukraine, a punch on the international chessboard
This article analyses the military invasion of Ukraine in the context of geopolitics, seeing the invasion not as the beginning of a new global ordering model, but one more chapter in the long-standing competition between great powers. What is new is the possibility of escalation in the conflict that could lead to direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, without any proxies.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and responses to the Russian escalation
This article considers the long-standing build-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and analyses Ukraine’s security options in the context of the war, acknowledging that it looks hard to find a solution that can bridge the differences of Ukrainian and Russian security perceptions.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
Bargaining with blood: Russia’s war in Ukraine
This brief applies the bargaining model of war to examine the origins, escalation, eventual termination, and long-term settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Ukraine: The shock of recognition
The author provides a historical perspective, in particular harking back to the broad anti-fascist alliance from around 1933 to 1947, regarding various factors at play in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine’s wartime information strategy
The article looks at the strategic communication policy applied by the Ukrainian authorities during the war and aimed at their own citizens, Russian society, and the international community.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s wartime censorship and propaganda
The author examines how the war against Ukraine is being used by the Russian government to transform Russia into a complete totalitarian state and the censorship and propaganda of military successes are tools employed to this end.
CHATHAM HOUSE – THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Ensuring Ukraine prevails is now the only moral choice
According to the brief, a successful outcome to the fighting in Ukraine is critical not only to Ukrainian statehood, but to the future security of Europe as a whole. That means the only way to secure Europe is to ensure Ukraine prevails – and is not subjected to a flawed and unworkable peace settlement that does no more than postpone its reckoning with Russia, while continuing the suffering of the Ukrainian people under occupation.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Can Russia be held accountable for war crimes in Ukraine?
The author examines what war crimes have been committed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how investigations might proceed, the role of the US in seeking accountability and the question of reparations.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Russland will die Identität der Ukraine auslöschen
Russland will die Identität der Ukraine auslöschen
The Russian attacks on Babyn Yar and other symbolic places and cultural monuments in Ukraine are similar to the practices of the Soviet Union and, according to the author, show that by destroying Ukrainian culture, Russia is trying to erase Ukrainian identity.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Justice in Ukraine may be slow, but must be steady
Justice in Ukraine may be slow, but must be steady
As the world is demanding justice for the atrocities being committed in Ukraine, the author outlines how achieving it will take both patience and determination.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy
The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy
This article looks at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the EU to take unprecedented decisions on security, defence and EU enlargement and how it is also starting to shape the EU’s external action more broadly, opening new questions for Brussels and member states.
LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH
The Ukrainian exodus calls for better coordination in the European Asylum Policy
The Ukrainian exodus calls for better coordination in the European Asylum Policy
This policy brief analyses the current situation and give estimates of the number of refugees who could be distributed across EU27 destinations depending on their absorption capacities.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Franco-Russian economic relations in the face of the war in Ukraine
Franco-Russian economic relations in the face of the war in Ukraine
According to the article, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will affect the French economy in micro and macroeconomic terms. The limited reaction of French businesses to the war shows that image losses remain a secondary issue while the risk of losing capital is much more alarming.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine
Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine
In order to better understand Turkey’s position vis-à-vis the Ukrainian war, this article looks at how different actors both within Turkey’s ruling alliance between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and those within the opposition relate to and perceive it.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Wariergardzie Zachodu – Izrael wobec wojny
Wariergardzie Zachodu – Izrael wobec wojny (The rearguard of the West – Israel’s attitude towards the war)
Although Russia’s invasion on Ukraine does not affect Israel directly, it is a huge political problem for this country. The article analyses the prudent position adopted by Israel, asking whether its balancing strategy will be plausible in case of possible escalation of the conflict.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Beyond Europe: the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa
This article analyses the reasons for the way African countries voted the way they did at the UN regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the effects that the war and the sanctions are having in these countries.
EU sanctions against Russia
6.4.2022
Now almost six weeks into the war of aggression against Ukraine, think tanks assess the impact of sanctions on Russia, the risk of their effectiveness being diluted, the need for continued pressure with the implications of extending sanctions to Russian oil and gas exports, as well as providing provisional assessments of the political landscape, the Russian air campaign, and the likelihood of a chemical and biological attack by Russia. They also look at how China, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa are responding to, or are impacted by, the war in Ukraine.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Un mois de guerre en Ukraine: les premières leçons
Un mois de guerre en Ukraine: les premières leçons
A month after the start of the war in Ukraine, the time for final assessments has unfortunately not yet come. However, a first provisional political assessment is particularly necessary because the conflict is at a time of uncertainty and therefore of tipping point. Indeed, as the author points out, the fate of Ukraine, the place of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the armed conflict has not yet decided anything.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Quelle campagne aérienne au-dessus de l’Ukraine ? Premiers éléments de réflexion
Quelle campagne aérienne au-dessus de l’Ukraine ? Premiers éléments de réflexion
The Russian air campaign in the war against Ukraine is relatively weak and messy. What are the reasons behind the lack of Russian air superiority? This briefing provides the first elements of analysis.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine: Is a chemical or biological attack likely ?
Ukraine: Is a chemical or biological attack likely ?
This article explores key questions about chemical and biological weapons, including when and how they might be used by Russia and the role of disinformation, concluding that although large-scale use in Ukraine appears unlikely, concerns remain about targeted attacks.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Considering the No-Fly Zone prospects in Ukraine
Considering the No-Fly Zone prospects in Ukraine
In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression across much of Ukraine and the growing number of civilian casualties and refugees, there is increasing pressure for the United States and NATO to create a no-fly zone over portions of Ukraine. The authors outline the need for policymakers to be clear-eyed in their understanding of the tactical challenges, the desired end state, and escalation risks of any form of a no-fly zone.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
La relance de la défense européenne et le conflit en Ukraine: dynamiques et paradoxes
La relance de la défense européenne et le conflit en Ukraine: dynamiques et paradoxes
The article deals with the future vision of European defence, its dynamics and paradoxes, including the role of the USA and NATO for European security as well as implications of the current situation in Ukraine. It also develops a future defence scenario in Europe which could involve the establishment of collective European defence forces at the same time showing possible restraints and problems arising from this idea.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
¿Cómo afecta la guerra de Ucrania a las economías europeas? Algunos indicadores preliminares
¿Cómo afecta la guerra de Ucrania a las economías europeas? Algunos indicadores preliminares
This analysis provides some relevant data to quantify the economic shock that Ukraine’s conflict means to Spain and the rest of EU member states. There are three main factors: energy dependence on Russia; the importance of the country as an export market; and the effects of higher import prices on the economy.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿Puede resistir las sanciones la economía rusa?
¿Puede resistir las sanciones la economía rusa?
The article considers that sanctions from the West will cause damage to the Russian economy, but maybe not enough to stop Putin, since the economy has become very resistant over the years. It claims the only option the West has is putting even more pressure on, including by extending sanctions to the energy sector, since it is only the Russian people who can stop Putin.
TERRA NOVA
L’heure des sanctions économiques a sonné
L’heure des sanctions économiques a sonné
The countries of the European Union have not remained passive in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This paper questions whether by focusing their response on economic sanctions, have they chosen an effective lever and what damage the EU member states are willing to bear to stop the Russian offensive.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components
The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components
According to this article, sanctions on high-tech goods supplies, combined with financial sanctions and other restrictions, will deprive Russia of a future as a modern economy.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
China can only offer an immediate respite for the Russian economy
China can only offer an immediate respite for the Russian economy
The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences for the Russian economy and beyond. This article points out that how devastating they can be depends on several factors, starting with how porous such sanctions might end up being. The elephant in the room regarding Russia’s ability to bypass or, at very least, mitigate the sanctions is China.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Sanctions against Russia – What can we learn from the past?
Sanctions against Russia – What can we learn from the past?
The European Union and its allies have been implementing several rounds of sanctions against Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. This blog post assesses experiences with sanctions from the past and provides a brief overview of economic costs, reasons that sanctions fail, and implications in the current case of Russia.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
Lessons from the Ukrainian cyber front
Lessons from the Ukrainian cyber front
The author of the commentary discusses the issue of cybersecurity and cyber attacks in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. In view of the current situation, the text includes a number of lessons that can be drawn and offers suggestions for the developing EU cyber policy.
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY
EU energy and climate security strategy to counter the Russian aggression in Europe
EU energy and climate security strategy to counter the Russian aggression in Europe
According to this policy brief, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia is no longer defensible. The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian economy in 8 to 11 months. This would need to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Ukraine’s EU Membership and the geostrategy of democratic self-preservation
Ukraine’s EU Membership and the geostrategy of democratic self-preservation
According to this article, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires the EU to upgrade its Eastern Partnership policy framework from non-committal to geostrategic. Offering Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership perspective would not only support the EU’s rhetoric of shoring up sovereignty but also defend democracy.
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
Strategies for order in a disorderly world
Strategies for order in a disorderly world
This strategic update clarifies the terms of the debates between realism and liberalism, in view of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. It suggests that in a disorderly world, neither realism nor liberal internationalism offers a sufficient path to a stable international order, because of their respective exaggerated claims.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No 281: Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture
Russian Analytical Digest No 281: Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture
The topics of this issue discuss the political regime stability in Russia, the reliability of Russian opinion polls, the impact of the war on Russian agriculture and Russian universities.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Can the war in Ukraine revive the EU’s enlargement agenda for the Western Balkans?
Can the war in Ukraine revive the EU’s enlargement agenda for the Western Balkans?
This paper asks, even if the EU does grant candidate status to Ukraine, as well as Moldova and Georgia, where this leaves the Western Balkans and their long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago. It also considers what impact the current crisis will have on the EU’s enlargement agenda over the coming months.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
China Trends #12 – Ukraine: China’s « Rock-Solid » Pro-Russia Narrative
China Trends #12 – Ukraine: China’s « Rock-Solid » Pro-Russia Narrative
This paper assesses how the Chinese press are analyzing the war in Ukraine. It notes the large elements of convergence among literally all published analyses and opinions, but also points to some nuances and different accents, sometimes even within the same writing.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
América Latina y la invasión de Ucrania: su incidencia en la economía, la geopolítica y la política interna
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, far from being a stranger to Latin America, so far removed from the European scene, has had a direct impact in at least three fields. This article analyses all three fields: the economy; the global dispute for the control and access to energy resources; and the internal political situation of the countries concerned.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East
What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East
This paper looks at how countries across the Middle East and North Africa are responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Citizens are feeling the impacts of the war in Europe on their food security, energy prices, and job markets. Regional governments are hedging their bets between Russia and the U.S.-led Western camp, playing on time to better evaluate the impacts of the war and to ease the restraints it is imposing on the fragile economies and social fabrics of the region.
30.3.2022
Almost five weeks after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the complexities of the war, including the threat of nuclear weapons, the consequences for the global economy with the risk of a global food shortage, the EU’s energy dilemma, the plight of Ukrainian refugees and the EU’s response, the implications of the war for different countries and their relations with the EU, and the need for a plan for rebuilding Ukraine after the war.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Europe should avoid two traps as it confronts war in Ukraine
Europe should avoid two traps as it confronts war in Ukraine
The author warns of two dangers for Europe in the context of the invasion of Ukraine: framing the war in civilisational terms and weaponizing multilateral economic institutions. The result could lead to a new Fortress Europe far from the original EU project.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russia and Ukraine: talking while fighting
Russia and Ukraine: talking while fighting
The author assesses the progress of talks between Russia and Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Rebuilding Ukraine after the war
Rebuilding Ukraine after the war
Though war in Ukraine is still in full force, the author argues the need for the Ukrainian government to already envisage and plan the recovery of its war devastated country.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin has immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. This article considers the question of whether the nuclear taboo will be broken for the first time in 77 years, or whether the balance of nuclear deterrence will be maintained?
NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN – CLINGENDAEL (NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Five questions on Western military support to Ukraine
Five questions on Western military support to Ukraine
A military analyst answers some of the most urgent questions on Western military support to Ukraine. Could this support stop or repel the Russian invasion? To what extent is this support a form of direct involvement? Could it lead to a proxy war?
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Intelligence and the war in Ukraine: the limited power of public disclosure
Intelligence and the war in Ukraine: the limited power of public disclosure
The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. This article considers the impact of intelligence information and assessments revealed by the United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Invasion russe de l’Ukraine : une rupture politico-stratégique?
Invasion russe de l’Ukraine : une rupture politico-stratégique?
Eight years after deploying an integral indirect strategy against Kiev, both military and non-military, the launch of this war by Russia may have seemed paradoxical insofar as the Russian political elites have, for thirty years, conceptualized and favoured the circumvention of the inter-state armed struggle to achieve political objectives considered vital.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: software, media and online services
The decoupling of Russia: software, media and online services
According to this blog post, restrictions so far on software, media and online services in Russia have been imposed either voluntarily by firms, or else by Russia itself in order to restrict the flow of information.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No. 280: Sanctions against Russia; Russia’s War in Ukraine on Social Media
Russian Analytical Digest No. 280: Sanctions against Russia; Russia’s War in Ukraine on Social Media
This issue looks into the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and highlights the so-called Fortress Russia strategy. In addition, the contributions discuss the role of social media platforms such as TikTok and VK and their potential for misinformation and the risks its users may face.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH – CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Dyktatura wojenna: władza i społeczeństwo w Rosji
Dyktatura wojenna: władza i społeczeństwo w Rosji (A military dictatorship: the authorities and the society in Russia)
Although there are no credible sociological data on the public mood in Russia, the level of support for or passive acceptance of « the special operation » is rather high. Considering the information blockade, the propaganda offensive and Russia’s elite attitudes, this article claims that the deepening isolation of Russia will be accompanied by a neo-totalitarian internal policy.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Die Sozialen Medien im Ukrainekrieg : Militärische Aufklärung und der Kampf um die Deutungshoheit
Die Sozialen Medien im Ukrainekrieg : Militärische Aufklärung und der Kampf um die Deutungshoheit
Military and ideological conflicts have been conducted for years via social media. This article points to a new phenomenon of warfare in Ukraine. Private individuals and Ukrainian soldiers use mobile phones to record troop movements, destroyed military equipment, bombings and spread them on social media.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Die religiöse Dimension des Krieges in der Ukraine und die globalen Konsequenzen
Die religiöse Dimension des Krieges in der Ukraine und die globalen Konsequenzen
The religious dimension of the war in Ukraine has mainly been discussed among theologists. The article comments on the extent of the ideologic involvement of the Russian orthodox church in the war and the global consequences of the politics of the Russian orthodox church.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
From ambiguity to adaptation: how to shift gears in EU-Ukrainian relations
From ambiguity to adaptation: how to shift gears in EU-Ukrainian relations
The article discusses possible ways for Ukraine to join the EU, among them a multi-staged accession.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
La crisis humanitaria de Ucrania debe forzar avances inesperados en el sistema de asilo europeo
La crisis humanitaria de Ucrania debe forzar avances inesperados en el sistema de asilo europeo
The article argues that the Ukrainian refugee crisis is putting the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to the test. The high level of consensus and the current position of traditionally more reticent countries opens up new possibilities for rapid progress on agreements within the Pact on Migration and Asylum to reform the CEAS.
HERTIE SCHOOL – JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Ukraine‘s refugee plight – A paradigm shift for the EU’s asylum policy?
Ukraine‘s refugee plight – A paradigm shift for the EU’s asylum policy?
The policy brief discusses why a mechanism for the fair sharing of responsibility is urgently needed and outlines what such a scheme could look like.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The Ukraine conflict, the largest European diaspora of the twenty first century?
The Ukraine conflict, the largest European diaspora of the twenty first century?
The invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the first major aggression in Europe since World War II. It has consequently caused the largest exodus of refugees. The author expresses concern about how long the European protection to these refugees will last and if it will become a humanitarian crisis.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Guerre en Ukraine: la population, otage d’une nouvelle stratégie russe de«pourrissement» ?
Guerre en Ukraine: la population, otage d’une nouvelle stratégie russe de«pourrissement» ?
This article focuses on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequences the armed conflict has on the Ukrainian civilian population. It discusses issues related to Ukrainian massive migration in the face of the armed conflict and analyses how the migratory flows in general seem to be have been used by Putin to achieve his objective of destabilizing and causing chaos in Europe.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Putin’s war and the EU’s response – How European Member States have united to help refugees
Putin’s war and the EU’s response – How European Member States have united to help refugees
The article gives an overview of how European member states have reacted to the recent influx of Ukrainian refugees. It briefly discusses the implementation of the temporary protection directive and questions whether the current situation could lead to a comprehensive reform of the Common European Asylum System.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP)
Flucht aus der Ukraine: Mobilität erhalten und langfristig denken!
Flucht aus der Ukraine: Mobilität erhalten und langfristig denken!
The EU has activated the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in response to the largest movement of refugees since the Second World War. This article considers what the next steps should be for dealing with the influx of refugees from Ukraine.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH – CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Gospodarcze skutki wojny: widmo głębokiego kryzysu w Rosji Gospodarcze skutki wojny: widmo głębokiego kryzysu w Rosji (The economic consequences of the war: a looming crisis in Russia)
The article outlines the sanctions imposed on Russia so far, describes the reaction of Kremlin and the first consequences of the measures.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Sanction-proof or sanction-hit : how can the EU make Putin’s evil war even more costly
Sanction-proof or sanction-hit : how can the EU make Putin’s evil war even more costly
The EU, together with its allies, has shown impressive unity in imposing severe sanctions against Russia. This Policy Insight reviews the EU’s sanctions against Russia and looks at the possibilities to increase their effectiveness, drawing upon lessons learned in the past.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
How the war against Ukraine can change the global economy
How the war against Ukraine can change the global economy
The analysts present five central consequences of the Russian war on Ukraine for global economic relations in the coming years: economic dependencies will be reduced, geopolitical considerations will increasingly shape foreign trade relations, there will be a threat of a bifurcation of the global economy, digitalization will shorten the global value chain, the attractiveness of the ecological transformation is accelerated.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
The China factor in Russia’s war: implications for Europe
The China factor in Russia’s war: implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the fronts are clear: the EU supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. If the EU deals with China, it must defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for maneuver, and learn to defuse tensions. This analysis, which is based on five scenarios, shows how.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Long-run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on food security in Africa
Long-run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on food security in Africa
Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Die Rückkehr der Knappheit
Important factors in the global economy have long since changed and these changes have been magnified by Putin’s war on Ukraine. This article examines the challenges which economic policy in particular will be facing, including factors relating to scarcity of food.
TERRA NOVA
Guerre en Ukraine : comment sauver la sécurité alimentaire sans sacrifier la transition agroécologique ?
Russia’s war on Ukraine risks causing a global food shortage. To avoid this, the authors question whether Europe should reverse its agricultural strategy in order to rapidly increase production and yields. In other words, should ecological transition be sacrificed in the name of stability?
E3G
EU can stop Russian gas imports by 2025: accelerating clean energy avoids fossil lock-in
EU can stop Russian gas imports by 2025: accelerating clean energy avoids fossil lock-in
The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the geopolitical liability for the EU from fossil fuel imports from autocratic regimes. This analysis considers ways for the EU to replace Russian gas imports in the short term, taking critical decisions over investment in infrastructure and economic relationships.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The authors of this article claim that the EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Life punishes those who come too late
Life punishes those who come too late
This article states that the EU should immediately impose a temporary embargo on Russian energy imports. According to the author, if the union waits any longer, it will be too late – and the political costs could be huge.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Predicting the future
This short commentary demonstrates how the war has caused countries to revise their risk assessments. It is not only about doing business or investing in Russia, but also about business in other non-rule-of-law authoritarian states, where foreigners have little recourse if things go wrong.
TERRA NOVA
L’Europe à l’épreuve de la guerre
L’Europe à l’épreuve de la guerre
The divisions that had settled between Europeans and created repeated confrontations – North against South, East against West, « frugal » against spenders – have all been upset by the three major crises that have followed one another at an accelerated pace in recent years: Brexit, Covid, Ukraine. This article considers the impact on the European project.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russia–Ukraine talks and the indispensable role of the US and Europe
Russia–Ukraine talks and the indispensable role of the US and Europe
The war in Ukraine is a catastrophic event that presents more risks than solutions. However, one thing stands firm for the author of this article: US and European involvement is a necessary condition for the establishment of a durable peace.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The United States and the Ukrainian crisis: implications for the internal arena and the great power competition
The United States and the Ukrainian crisis: implications for the internal arena and the great power competition
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. This article analyses the implications of the crisis for the US.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH – CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Chiński dylemat. Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę a sytuacja strategiczna Chin Chiński dylemat. Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę a sytuacja strategiczna Chin (A Chinese dilemma. The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the strategic situation of China)
The efficient resistance of Ukraine, the united European reaction and heavy sanctions on Russia are creating a new unfavourable strategic situation for China. The author reflects on a possible evolution of the Chinese stance towards the war.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
The China factor in Russia’s war : implications for Europe
The China factor in Russia’s war : implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the European Union supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory, geopolitical, and economic divergences between the EU and China, their short-term priorities overlap. Both are striving for a negotiated solution. This analysis shows how the EU could defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for manoeuver, and learn to defuse tensions.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Keeping China out of the Ukraine conflict
Keeping China out of the Ukraine conflict
This article states that keeping China out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict will be key for keeping global order, despite the damage already done to Ukraine. The author believes that liberal democracies can survive Putin’s Russia as long as it remains an isolated pariah; and Western diplomats should endeavour to achieve so.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The War in Ukraine: troubling lessons for Taiwan
The War in Ukraine: troubling lessons for Taiwan
In the light of the war in Ukraine, this article comments on the question for Taiwan of how far Europe and the United States would go to its aid in the event of an attack by China.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
How do India’s choices on the Ukraine crisis affect its foreign relations?
How do India’s choices on the Ukraine crisis affect its foreign relations?
The author considers the consequences of India’s “balancing act” on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on India’s security and geopolitical interests with regard to China.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
L’ambivalence du Moyen-Orient face à la guerre en Ukraine
L’ambivalence du Moyen-Orient face à la guerre en Ukraine
This paper analyses the position of some states, traditionally allies of the West, towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Israel, Turkey or Egypt did not react or, at least at first, condemn the war in Ukraine. This has raised a series of questions about their view on the Russian aggression as well as their relations with Russia and suggests that the states in question are performing a balancing act between their American and Russian ally.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s war on Ukraine: consequences for Georgia and Moldova
Russia’s war on Ukraine: consequences for Georgia and Moldova
This article looks at how Russia’s unprovoked and illegal large-scale invasion of Ukraine has already had significant repercussions for the other two Eastern Partnership states with association agreements with the EU.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: the Palestinians and the crisis in Ukraine
The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: the Palestinians and the crisis in Ukraine
While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention, claims this article.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine and strategic hedging by Arab countries
The war in Ukraine and strategic hedging by Arab countries
Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. This article comments on the hedging policy by Arab countries.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
War in Ukraine: Asia takes sides
War in Ukraine: Asia takes sides
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has split Asia in two parts. On one side stand the most advanced economies in the region and the majority of Asian members; on the other side, countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan that opted for neutrality, along with India and China. According to the author, such a division will affect the regional blocks in the making in the Indo-Pacific: China and the countries keen on containing China.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
La guerra y el resto del mundo
La guerra y el resto del mundo
This article analyses how this war is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also between the West and the East. Some actors are using this situation to move forward in their own external politics and security and historical vindications. For example, wounds in the relationship in between China and the US seem to be reopening. Global governance – such as the UN’s – seems increasingly complicated and the world increasingly dangerous.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Putin’s war on Ukraine: aftershocks in the Europe-Africa partnership
Putin’s war on Ukraine: aftershocks in the Europe-Africa partnership
This articles studies how the Russian-Ukraine war looks set to create daunting challenges for African countries in areas such as food and energy security. The author encourages Europe to show solidarity with them.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Never waste a crisis: the war on Ukraine as a catalyst in the Balkans
Never waste a crisis: the war on Ukraine as a catalyst in the Balkans
This article looks at the Ukraine-Russia war as a warning to the leaders in the Western Balkans and as a catalyst for the EU. It is time for the first to move on and for the second to offer support, especially for the youth in the Balkans, and a clear prospect of membership.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
A Russia strategy must look South: the Caucasus impacts Europe through the Eastern Mediterranean
A Russia strategy must look South: the Caucasus impacts Europe through the Eastern Mediterranean
This articles underlines the essentiality of a good neighbour relationship and coordination between the three seas – Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas- in order to improve and maintain an European security and prosperity, especially now on the face of the current events in between Ukraine and Russia.
Almost one month after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks consider the rising stakes in the struggle for democracy in Europe and beyond, and analyse the challenges of shaping an endgame, Ukraine’s application for EU membership, the nature of the war, including the cyber security threat, the use of disinformation and the role of cryptocurrencies. Others examine how the security crisis is turning into a massive humanitarian crisis, the situation of refugees in Poland and the implications of the war, especially in the security and energy domains, not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also on other regions in the world.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
The Ukraine war and the struggle to defend democracy in Europe and beyond: rising stakes in the struggle for democracy
Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The authors consider that the invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threats.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame
The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame
The author considers that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss
Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss
The author gives a military expert analysis about Russian war targets, nuclear escalation, Ukrainian defence and why the date of April 1, 2022 is important from a Russian point of view.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war?
The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war?
The author sees in the world’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new approach to countering authoritarian aggression or even a new approach to war itself. The famous Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz specifically said: “War is a mere continuation of policy ‘with the addition of other means’ (mit Einmischung anderer Mitteln).” This article claims the world is responding to Putin with the addition of other means like never before.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
Deciphering Russia’s wartime cyber campaign : what it is, what it isn’t, and what Europe can do about it
The authors outline that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cyber threat landscape is quickly evolving. Now, Europe, the United States, and like-minded democracies must prepare for persistent “gray zone” conflict in their own cyberspaces.
INSTITUTE FOR PEACE SUPPORT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT
Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications
Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine represents a turning point for European and Austrian security policy. It calls into question previously established paradigms of international security and international crisis and conflict management. Regardless of the actual outcome of the war, this paper assumes a fundamental paradigm shift in international relations.
